Cardiovascular Journal of Africa • SAHS Biennial Congress 2024 9 AFRICA Submission ID: 1624 Introduction Decline in kidney function has been associated with increased risk of adverse renal outcomes, cardiovascular disease, and mortality. There is limited data available on the trajectory of kidney function overtime and risk factors in African populations. We investigated the changes in kidney function over a period of 10-years and determined the factors associated with decline in kidney function in an African population. Methods We followed 719 individuals aged 30 years and above from year 2005 to 2015 residing in urban and rural areas of the North West province in South Africa. Kidney function was assessed using estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) measured at baseline and at a 10-year follow-up. A decline in kidney function was defined as a drop of 25% or more in eGFR. The risk factors investigated included age, sex, locality, baseline eGFR, hypertension, diabetes, obesity, dyslipidaemia, HIV status, smoking and alcohol consumption. Demographic and lifestyle information was collected using questionnaires and laboratory tests were conducted to analyse biological samples. The prevalence of hypertension, diabetes, obesity and dyslipidaemia were determined according to respective guidelines. Logistic regression analysis was employed to identify significant risk factors associated with the decline in kidney function. Results Of the 719 participants, 10.4% experienced a >25% decline in kidney function over the study period and their baseline eGFR was 97.6 ml/ min/1.73m^2 which declined to 59.7 ml/min/1.73m^2 at follow-up. Among this group, 70% had hypertension, 15% had diabetes, 51% were obese, 37% were smokers, and 29% consumed alcohol. The identified primary risk factors associated with a decline in kidney function included age (OR: 3.32; 95% Cl: 2.29 – 4.82), baseline eGFR (OR: 1.96; 95% Cl: 1.28 – 2.99) and urban locality (OR: 2.40; 95% Cl: 1.37 – 4.20. Conclusion Age, baseline eGFR and urban locality are strong and independent predictors of decline in kidney function. In the absence of independent results with the traditional risk factors (hypertension, diabetes, obesity, smoking, alcohol consumption); it is recommended that future studies consider additional risk factors related to the location of the individuals in addition to the traditional risk factors for the prediction of kidney function decline. Regular estimation of eGFR from a young age would allow targeted and timely intervention necessary to reduce the burden of kidney disease. Name: Presenting Author Information Article Category Abstract Title Hypertension in Africa Research Team nonkululeko.navise@nwu.ac.za English Abstract Students - Currently enrolled postgraduate students Predictors of estimated glomerular filtration rate decline, over a 10-year period in a cohort in the North West province, South Africa Author Affiliation: Email: Nonkululeko Navise Science Theme Basic Authors Name & Surname Title Expertise Affiliation Email Country Nonkululeko Navise Ms Kidney function Hypertension in Africa Research Team nonkululeko.navise@nwu.ac.za South Africa Gonste Mokwatsi Dr Hypertension Hypertension in Africa Research Team; MRC Unit for Hypertension and Cardiovascular Disease gontse.mokwatsi@nwu.ac.za South Africa Leandi Lammertyn Prof Metabolic, cardiovascular and lifestyle markers Hypertension in Africa Research Team; MRC Unit for Hypertension and Cardiovascular Disease leandi.lammertyn@nwu.ac.za South Africa ORAL PRESENTATION
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